Enhancing ecosystem services and socio-ecological system coupling coordination through LULC optimization

• Integrated coupling, simulation, and evaluation for sustainability. • High-coupling LULC optimization raises ecosystem services by 7 %–19 %. • High-coupling strategies improve socio-ecological coordination by 0.1649. • Proposed a data-driven, future-oriented paradigm validated historically. In the context of global urbanization and the degradation of ecosystem services, optimizing land use and land cover (LULC) emerges as a pivotal Nature-based Solution for the effective management of human-influenced landscapes. This methodology is essential for enhancing ecosystem functions and fostering sustainable development. By analyzing LULC data spanning from 2000 to 2020, in conjunction with 20 driving factors within the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration, we devised a technical framework consisting of “historical coupling state identification, multi-scenario simulation, and ecological effect evaluation.” Utilizing this framework, we optimized LULC projections for the year 2060 across three scenarios: Low-Coupling, Natural-Development, and High-Coupling. Our findings reveal that, subsequent to LULC optimization in the High-Coupling scenario, a significant increase in ecosystem services is observed. Specifically, the forest area expands by 90,238 ha, and water bodies increase by 1840 ha, while unused land diminishes by 387,637 ha. This optimization yields a 19.12 % elevation in water yield, achieving 205.54 cubic meters, a 10.52 % enhancement in soil retention to 297.92 tons per hectare, and a 7.0 % augmentation in carbon storage to 85.95 kg of carbon per hectare, effectively reversing ecological degradation. Furthermore, it improves the coupling coordination of the social-ecological system by 0.1649 from 2020 to 2060, demonstrating synergistic effects extending from the core area to adjacent regions. This research elucidates the mechanism underlying “LULC optimization–ecological function enhancement-system coupling synergy” and provides a spatial regulation framework for resource-dependent and ecologically vulnerable areas.