Examining the relationship between exports and CO2 emissions in Vietnam

This study examines the relationship between exports and CO2 emissions in Vietnam from 1990 to 2022 using time-series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Results indicate that, GDP growth significantly increases CO2 emissions, while no evidence supports the Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Vietnamese context. Sectoral impacts vary: textile exports are associated with higher emissions, whereas agricultural and forestry exports contribute to emission reduction. Short- and long-run effects differ across sectors, with the ECM term indicating rapid adjustment to long-run equilibrium after short-term shocks. These findings suggest policy directions for sustainable development, including promoting green technology adoption in high-emission export sectors and supporting agriculture and forestry to ensure that export-led growth aligns with climate change mitigation goals.