Decadal Assessment of Agricultural Fire Counts During Pre- and Post-Monsoon Seasons in Punjab (2015–2024)

Agricultural residue burning remains one of the leading environmental challenges in Punjab, India, contributing heavily to seasonal air pollution and deteriorating air quality across the Indo-Gangetic Plain.This study analyzes the temporal and seasonal variations of fire events in Punjab over the last decade (2015-2024) using VIIRS satellite fire count data, with a focus on pre-monsoon (wheat residue burning) and post-monsoon (rice residue burning) periods.The results show that post-monsoon fires dominate the annual fire activity, accounting for nearly 72% of all recorded events.Major fire peaks were observed in 2016, 2020, and 2021, with counts exceeding 75,000 events in a single season.In contrast, pre-monsoon fires remained comparatively stable, averaging around 17,000 events annually, though a significant rise was recorded in 2019 and again in 2024.A sharp decline in fire activity occurred in recent years, particularly in 2023 and 2024, with the lowest total count of 28,956 fires recorded in 2024, suggesting the impact of stricter policies, improved residue management, and farmer-level interventions.Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative relationship (r = -0.733,p < 0.05) between pre-monsoon and post-monsoon fire counts, reflecting seasonal trade-offs in burning intensity.Spatial distribution analysis further indicated that rice residue burning is concentrated in northern and northwestern Punjab, while wheat residue burning shows a more even spread across the state.The findings highlight that while policy interventions have begun to reduce fire intensity in recent years, residue burning remains a critical driver of seasonal air pollution.Sustained farmer incentives, adoption of ecofriendly residue management technologies, and region-specific mitigation strategies are necessary to achieve long-term improvements in air quality and agricultural sustainability in Punjab.