Priming, Framing, and Public Support for Conditionality on U.S. Military Aid to Israel A Pre-Registered 2×3 Survey Experiment

Public debates about U.S. assistance to Israel increasingly concern how funds are governed rather than whether aid should exist. This study tests how media framing and security priming shape support for conditions and oversight on such aid. A preregistered 2×3 survey experiment (~1,800 U.S. adults, YouGov) crosses a security-salience prime (present/absent) with news-style frames (neutral, humanitarian, alliance). The primary outcome is a standardized Policy Support—Conditions/Oversight (PSI–CO) index averaging five items: civilian-protection conditions, suspension after violations, independent monitoring, public reporting, and audited earmarks. Preplanned contrasts evaluated with robust OLS and Holm familywise control assess four hypotheses about frame and prime effects, including an interaction predicting stronger alliance-frame reductions under security salience. Falsification, balance, and sensitivity checks address demand and shock timing.