Data-Driven Analysis of Wind Curtailment Energy Imbalance and Distributed Generation in Brazil

The rapid expansion of Micro and Mini Distributed Generation (MMDG) in Brazil, primarily solar photovoltaic, has significantly reshaped energy distribution dynamics, directly supplying local loads and reducing the visibility of net demand by the centralized operator. This study investigates the interplay between MMDG generation and energy imbalance (ENE) curtailment events in centralized wind farms, addressing a key gap in understanding the indirect impacts of distributed generation on centralized operations. Using a data-driven methodology, the analysis considers hourly and monthly time series, applying correlation analysis to assess temporal alignment between MMDG generation peaks and curtailment occurrences. The average correlation across the dataset was approximately 60% of curtailment days exhibited strong positive correlations (0.5–1.0). Such high-impact events, combined with observed outliers where curtailed wind energy exceeded MMGDG levels, reveal the current system's flexibility vulnerabilities. These results highlight the limitations of using average metrics alone and emphasize the importance of analyzing localized and temporal phenomena to capture emerging grid dynamics. This initial assessment supports the urgent need for targeted investments in grid flexibility, energy storage, and demand-side strategies. As MMDG penetration continues to grow, its operational influence on the SIN will likely intensify, requiring refined planning frameworks to ensure efficient renewable integration and minimize curtailment losses.