Comparative life-cycle analyses reveal interacting climatic and biotic drivers of population responses to climate change

Responses of natural populations to climate change are driven by how multiple climatic and biotic factors affect survival and reproduction, and ultimately shape population dynamics. Yet, despite substantial progress in synthesizing the sensitivity of populations to climatic variation, comparative studies still overlook such complex interactions among drivers that generate variation in population-level metrics. Here, we use a common framework to synthesize how the joint effects of climate and biotic drivers on different vital rates impact population change, using unique long-term data from 41 species, ranging from trees to primates. We show that simultaneous effects of multiple climatic drivers exacerbate population responses to climate change, especially for fast-lived species. However, accounting for density feedbacks under climate variation buffers the effects of climate change on population dynamics. In all species considered in our analyses, such interactions between climate and density had starkly different effects depending on the age, size, or life-cycle stage of individuals, regardless of the life history of species. Our work provides the first general framework to assess how covarying effects of climate and density across a wide range of population models can impact populations of plants and animals under climate change.

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Publication Details

Journal
PNAS Nexus
Published
2025-08-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf286
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Climate change impacts on agriculture
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
6.05

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article

Comparative life-cycle analyses reveal interacting climatic and biotic drivers of population responses to climate change

Chloé R. Nater, Arpat Özgül, P. Dee Boersma, Neville Pillay et al.
2 citations
PNAS Nexus
Climate change impacts on agriculture
6.05
article

Comparative life-cycle analyses reveal interacting climatic and biotic drivers of population responses to climate change

Chloé R. Nater, Arpat Özgül, P. Dee Boersma, Neville Pillay, Anne‐Kathleen Malchow, Maud Quéroué, Julien G. A. Martin, Claudia Fichtel, Marta B. Manser, Eva Conquet, Peter M. Kappeler, Tomáš Dostálek, Monica L. Bond, S. D. Albon, Zuzana Münzbergová, Teresa Sánchez-Mejía, Carsten Schradin, Kurt Jerstad, David García‐Callejas, T. J. Clark, Briana Abrahms, Tim Clutton‐Brock, Daniel T. Blumstein, Maria Paniw, Ana Morales‐González, Derek Lee, Brage Bremset Hansen, Stéphanie Jenouvrier, Michael Griesser, Sanne Evers, Marlène Gamelon, Aldo Compagnoni, Kate Layton‐Matthews, Bernt‐Erik Sæther, Maarten J. J. E. Loonen, Francisco Lloret, Ole Wiggo Røstad, Esin Ickin
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Responses of natural populations to climate change are driven by how multiple climatic and biotic factors affect survival and reproduction, and ultimately shape population dynamics. Yet, despite substantial progress in synthesizing the sensitivity of populations to climatic variation, comparative studies still overlook such complex interactions among drivers that generate variation in population-level metrics. Here, we use a common framework to synthesize how the joint effects of climate and biotic drivers on different vital rates impact population change, using unique long-term data from 41 species, ranging from trees to primates. We show that simultaneous effects of multiple climatic drivers exacerbate population responses to climate change, especially for fast-lived species. However, accounting for density feedbacks under climate variation buffers the effects of climate change on population dynamics. In all species considered in our analyses, such interactions between climate and density had starkly different effects depending on the age, size, or life-cycle stage of individuals, regardless of the life history of species. Our work provides the first general framework to assess how covarying effects of climate and density across a wide range of population models can impact populations of plants and animals under climate change.

PNAS NexusVol. 4(9)
Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (FR), Utah State University (US), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University Medical Center Groningen (NL), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (DE), University of Ottawa (CA), James Hutton Institute (GB), École Pratique des Hautes Études (FR), University of California, Los Angeles (US), University of Groningen (NL), University of Canterbury (NZ), University of Konstanz (DE), University of the Witwatersrand (ZA), Université de Montpellier (FR), University of Washington (US), University of Zurich (CH), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO), Charles University (CZ), University of Cambridge (GB), American Sentinel University (US), Luther University (KR), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE), Kalahari Meerkat Project (ZA), German Primate Center (DE), Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (US), Mammal Research Institute (PL), International School of Law and Business (LT), Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES), Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive (FR), Bridge University (SS), Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior (DE), Wild Nature Institute (US), Institute of Zoology (KZ), Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (ES), Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany (CZ), Institut de Biologia Evolutiva (ES), Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive (FR), Norwegian Biodiversity Information Centre (NO), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NO), University of Regensburg (DE), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US), Université de Strasbourg (FR), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (DE), University of Pretoria (ZA), Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research (NZ)
National Science Foundation, National Geographic Society, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Akademie Věd České Republiky, University of California, Los Angeles, European Regional Development Fund, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, School of Life Sciences and Biotechnology Division of Life Sciences, Korea University
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Climate change impacts on agriculture
6.05
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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