Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Models for Disability Resource Planning in Brazil’s National Textbook Program

The accurate forecasting of student disability trends is essential for optimizing educational accessibility and resource distribution in the context of Brazil’s oldest public policy, the National Textbook Program (PNLD). This study applies machine learning (ML) and time series forecasting models (TSF) to predict the number of visually impaired students in Brazil using educational census data from 2021 to 2023, with the aim of estimating the amount of Braille textbooks to be acquired in the PNLD’s context. By performing a comparative analysis on various ML models (e.g, Naive Bayes, ElasticNet, gradient boosting) and TSF techniques (e.g., ARIMA and SARIMA models, as well as exponential smoothing) to predict future enrollment trends, we identify the most effective approaches for school-level and long-term disability enrollment predictions. Results show that ElasticNet and gradient boosting excel in forecasting enrollment estimations over TSF models. Despite challenges related to data inconsistencies and reporting variations, incorporating external demographic and health data could further improve predictive accuracy. This research contributes to AI-driven educational accessibility by demonstrating how predictive analytics can enhance policy decisions and ensure an equitable distribution of resources for students with disabilities.