Scenario Analysis of Carbon Reduction Potential Through Forest Carbon Sink Mechanisms in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China

Forests in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region have played an important role in wind prevention, sand fixation, and carbon emission reduction in China. This study uses scenario analysis to assess the region’s potential for carbon emission reduction through forest carbon sinks under low-carbon development scenarios. The findings suggest that, by 2030, when carbon emissions are expected to peak, the maximum projected cumulative carbon reduction from forest carbon sinks in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region will be 25.572 million tons, contributing 6.26% to carbon emission reduction. By 2060, when the region aims to achieve carbon neutrality, the maximum projected cumulative carbon reduction from forest carbon sinks will be 366.207 million tons, with a contribution to carbon neutrality exceeding 17%. In the medium-to-long term, the forest carbon sink mechanism is anticipated to become a primary pathway for carbon emission reduction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. This study expands the analytical framework for carbon emission reduction pathways under various scenarios and recommends that relevant government departments in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region enhance coordination of “carbon-related” policies across cities and actively explore cross-regional ecological compensation models for forest carbon sinks, etc.