Analysis of Trends, Decomposition, Growth, and Instability in Maize Production of Uttar Pradesh, India

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a globally cultivated cereal crop grown for diverse purposes, including human consumption, livestock feed, and various industrial applications. It thrives in warm regions with proper drainage and adequate rainfall. In India, it primarily thrives in regions like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh cultivates maize in the rabi, kharif, and Zaid seasons, primarily as a kharif crop, even though it is grown throughout the state. The time series data on maize area, production, and yield, spanning the years 1950-51 to 2022-23, were sourced from the Indiastat website. The study examines this dataset using measures such as the coefficient of variation, instability index, and growth rate. Growth rates were calculated using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) method, while the coefficient of variation and the Cuddy Della Valle Index were applied to assess instability in the data. The maize growth rates throughout the study duration are categorized into four sub-periods: Period-I (1950-1973), Period-II (1974-1997), Period-III (1998-2022), and the Overall Period (1950-2022). Trend values were estimated using established statistical linear and nonlinear regression models, including the linear, logarithmic model, quintic model, power model, exponential model, quadratic model, and cubic model. Furthermore, the accuracy of various fitted models was evaluated using statistical measures such as the coefficient of determination (R²), adjusted R², root mean square error (RMSE), and relative mean absolute percentage error (RMAPE). According to these statistical measures, specifically R², adjusted R², RMSE and RMAPE, the cubic model represents the optimal fit for maize’s area, production, and yield in Uttar Pradesh. Analysis of maize decomposition reveals that the area effect of maize was the primary factor driving the rise in maize production in Uttar Pradesh.