Advanced Time Series Forecasting of Turmeric Production using ARIMA Modelling: An Empirical Analysis in Selected Southern States of India

Turmeric, an important part of India’s agricultural heritage, significantly contributes to its export economy. Southern states are the main hubs of turmeric cultivation. This study analyzes 43 years (1980-2022) of data from the Indiastat database to examine trends in area, production and yield across Southern India. ARIMA models were utilized to forecast turmeric production trends across the Southern states of India, with model selection guided by minimizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the number of residual spikes exceeding the confidence interval. For Andhra Pradesh, the ARIMA (2,1,3) model was identified as the best fit, reflecting fluctuations in production. In Karnataka, ARIMA (1,1,3) provided the most suitable model, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala showed increasing trends best captured by ARIMA (2,1,2) and ARIMA (1,1,1), respectively. This approach ensured that the selected models offered both statistical robustness and reliable forecasting for each state’s production dynamics.