Quantitative attribution of key drivers influencing natural runoff changes in the Yellow River Basin

ABSTRACT Effective water management in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) requires a more nuanced understanding of the runoff dynamics and their drivers. Utilizing the China Natural Runoff Dataset and the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, this study investigated spatial and temporal changes in runoff depth (R) and its three driving factors, precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and the underlying surface parameter (n) from 1979 to 2018. Our analysis revealed a significant increase in R of 0.44 mm/a. We found that R increased 1–3% per 1% P increase, while showing negative responses to ET0 and n. We also found that P and n contributed 265.2 and 62.5% to runoff changes, respectively, while ET0 had a minor negative effect. These results indicated that increasing precipitation and surface changes have been the primary drivers of runoff growth in the YRB.