Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Drought in Bosnia and Herzegovina During the Period 1956–2023

ABSTRACT Drought is one of the key natural phenomena with potentially serious consequences for economic sectors and ecological systems. This study analyses the spatial and temporal dynamics of drought in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period 1956–2023, using Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), based on data from 12 meteorological stations. The findings indicate that 2011 was the driest year, whereas 2010 was the wettest one across Bosnia and Herzegovina, as confirmed by the RAI results at most meteorological stations. The spatial distribution of drought episodes reveals significant regional disparities, with the southern and eastern parts of the country experiencing a higher frequency of drought periods compared to the northern and western regions. The seasonal analysis indicates that summer and spring months are particularly prone to drought episodes, whereas autumn and winter are characterised by higher precipitation levels. The results reflect seasonal and regional differences in the frequency and intensity of drought based on the RAI, and can serve as a basis for developing early warning systems, optimising water resource management and adapting strategies in agriculture and forestry. Further research is required to refine drought trend modelling and examine its connection with global climate change.