Investigation of Temperature Change in the Aksu Basin, Antalya Province, and Future Projection

Climate change and sustainable development hold critical significance for all communities. A major driver of climate change is the rise in carbon emissions, which is fueled by factors like population growth, economic development, technological advancements, migration, and national governance strategies. This trend underscores that industrialized nations play a substantial role in contributing to global carbon emissions. The effects of climate change are evident in increasing temperatures, decreased rainfall, changes in water resource potential, and variations in streamflow patterns. These consequences, especially in developing nations, result in population movements, migration waves, changes in agricultural and commercial production, and profound socio-cultural shifts within societies. In Turkey, the most significant effect of climate change is evident in the potential of its water resources. Despite this, the public largely fails to acknowledge the issue, and there is a common misconception that Turkey will not experience water shortages. However, recent droughts and climate-related changes highlight the seriousness of this threat. This research examines the variations in yearly average temperatures in the Aksu Basin, in Antalya Province, as affected by climate change. Historical temperature records from the area were analyzed using MATLAB's Curve Fitter Toolbox, and various polynomial regression models were employed. The regression analysis was used to predict future temperature values for the region. Among the models tested, the linear (first-degree polynomial) model yielded the most accurate results. This model suggests that the annual average temperature in the area could rise by about 0.003°C