Trend and variability of rainfall in Kaduna using innovative trend analysis: Implications for climate resilience and livelihood sustainability

Climate variability influences the livelihoods of millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa, and it has been linked to food security in the region. This study assessed the trends and variability of rainfall and temperature in Kaduna State. Climate data was obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The data were analyzed using Coefficient of Variation (CV), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Seasonal Mann-Kendall (SMK), and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), which effectively detects these trends and seasonal fluctuations, providing deeper insights into the state's climate dynamics. Results revealed that annual and monthly rainfall was characterized by moderate variability (CV), while annual and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures exhibited low variability (CV<20%). For the trend analysis, the MMK revealed annual and monthly rainfall experienced non-significant decreasing trends (p>0.05), while the Seasonal Mann-Kendall (SMK) test indicated significantly decreasing trends in seasonal rainfall (p < 0.05). However, the ITA detected significantly decreasing rainfall at annual and monthly timescales. The Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) both detected significant increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures in Kaduna (p < 0.05) at annual and monthly timescales. The study concluded that while rainfall is decreasing in the study area, both minimum and maximum temperatures are significantly increasing. The findings highlight the challenges posed by changing rainfall patterns, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience, particularly for agriculture-dependent communities. The study recommended that there is a need for increased stakeholder engagement to enhance the adaptation and climate resilience of millions of people whose livelihoods depend on rainfed agriculture in Kaduna State.