Sustainable Regional Development Under Demographic Transition: Labor Market Integration and Export Quality Enhancement in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

It has become a global challenge to realize sustainable regional development in the context of demographic transition. Based on the panel data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2022, this paper analyzes in depth the impact mechanism of labor market integration on export quality and its sustainable development effect by using various econometric methods. It is found that labor market integration enhances regional export quality, and every 1% increase in the integration level can bring 0.184% improvement in export quality. Mechanism analysis shows that labor market integration works mainly through two channels: innovation synergy effect (27%) and labor cost effect (8%). Heterogeneity analysis shows that the elasticity coefficients of general trade and high-income nations are 0.155 and 0.208, respectively, but the elasticity coefficients for processing trade, low-income, lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income nations are not significant. Furthermore, feature fact analysis reveals that the three regions of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have varying degrees of labor market integration: Beijing (0.038) > Tianjin (0.037) > Hebei (0.034); nevertheless, the export product quality gradient is reversed: Beijing (0.617) < Tianjin (0.665) < Hebei (0.669). The evaluation of sustainable development impacts reveals that labor market integration not only mitigates internal labor shortages but also effectively counteracts the external shock of U.S. tariff increases on China. This study provides important theoretical support and policy insights for building a sustainable regional development model in the context of demographic transition.