Mathematical Modelling of Wheat Yield in Ranchi, Jharkhand Using Rainfall and Temperature Data

This work integrates long-term climate records (1975–2024) with district wheat production data (2003–2024) to develop a mathematical model to assess the effects of temperature and rainfall on wheat crop output in Ranchi, Jharkhand. We suggested a model that incorporates effective rainfall and accumulated thermal time (degree days) into a logistic growth framework. With wheat yield showing greater sensitivity to GDD (elasticity 0.65) than to rainfall (elasticity 0.35), the model described approximately 72% of yield variability by estimating accumulated growing degree days (GDD) and integrating rainfall into a logistic growth framework (R2 = 0.72). The findings show that accumulated thermal time is the main factor influencing wheat productivity in this area, even though sufficient rainfall supports soil moisture availability. The RMSE of around 300 kg/ha and R2 of 0.72 were attained using the suggested model. This study emphasizes the potential yield changes under anticipated climate scenarios and the significance of climatic factors in wheat productivity. Adaptive management in changing climatic conditions can benefit from these insights