Impact of Low-Altitude Wind Shear on Aircraft Performance and Recovery Strategies: A Dynamic Modeling and Machine Learning Approach

Low-altitude wind shear, occurring within 600 meters above ground, presents a serious threat to aircraft safety, particularly during takeoff and landing. This study develops a three-dimensional low-altitude wind shear model and a dynamic model incorporating disturbance wind parameters. Using numerical simulations and a random forest algorithm, we analyze the impact of wind shear on aircraft performance and propose effective response strategies. First, a real-time wind shear model based on the vortex ring method is constructed to determine wind vectors within microburst-induced shear. Coupled with a simplified three-degree-of-freedom aircraft dynamic model, numerical simulations indicate that tailwind shear reduces airspeed, pitch angle, and altitude, increasing the risk of accidents. Second, to formulate response strategies, B747-100 aircraft data is processed using a fourth-fifth order Runge-Kutta numerical integration method to compute real-time flight states. The model is trimmed to obtain initial control inputs, and steady descent and climb simulations verify its reliability. A longitudinal recovery strategy maintaining a 15° pitch angle with full thrust effectively restores altitude, while a lateral recovery strategy shows a higher success rate in exiting wind shear conditions. Third, a random forest model optimized via NSGA-II is used to assess key factors affecting flight safety, including airspeed, altitude, angle of attack, and wind intensity. Simulations reveal that increased wind shear intensity significantly decreases energy height and raises the F-factor, highlighting its adverse effects on flight safety. This research provides theoretical support and practical guidance for ensuring safe aircraft operation under low-altitude wind shear conditions, offering valuable insights for aviation safety management and pilot training.