Unfreezing the past: near Pan-Svalbard assessment of cryospheric hazards to Arctic cultural heritage

Permafrost degradation is accelerating across the Arctic, posing growing risks to cultural heritage (CH) sites. This study presents the first archipelago-scale hazard assessment of CH to retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) and thermo-erosion gullies (TEG) in Svalbard, one of the fastest-warming regions globally. By overlaying recent RTS and TEG inventories with the spatial distribution of protected CH sites, we quantify hazard exposure for 55.3 % of all CH sites, 50.8 % of safety zones, and 50 % of priority sites, with a focus on central and southern Spitsbergen. Nordenskiöld Land has been identified as the primary high-risk area for RTS impacts, with direct threats to CH sites. Wedel Jarlsberg Land and James I Land rank as secondary and tertiary risk regions. Safety zones face the highest RTS risk in Wedel Jarlsberg Land, while priority sites are most at risk in Nordenskiöld Land. The latter region also dominates TEG-related risks and accounts for the majority of direct and buffer zone overlaps due to its high density of both hazards and CH sites and permafrost hazards. Wedel Jarlsberg Land has been identified as a secondary TEG hotspot. Risk increases substantially with buffer distance, underscoring the potential for future hazard expansion. The results highlight the need for regionally targeted, risk-informed conservation strategies that integrate climate hazard data into heritage management, monitoring, and spatial planning. The study also demonstrates the value of the SvalCryo dataset as a tool for supporting adaptive governance and contributing to broader climate adaptation and non-economic loss tracking frameworks across the Arctic.