Interannual dynamics and driving mechanisms of the shrinkage for lake groups in the Jiziwan region of Yellow River from 1986 to 2024

Study region: Jiziwan (JZW) of the Yellow River, China Study focus: Lake shrinkage affects both the hydrological cycle and the local ecology. Since the 1980s, numerous lakes in the Jiziwan (JZW) of the Yellow River have shrunk significantly, yet their interannual dynamics and driving mechanisms remain unexplored. Using Landsat data, this study analyzed spatiotemporal dynamics of seasonal and permanent lakes (>0.01 km2) over 39 years, considering elevation zones and watershed divisions, and assessed their sensitivity to climatic shifts and anthropogenic interventions. New hydrological insights for the region: The results indicated that the area of seasonal lakes in JZW slightly increased from 1986 to 2024, whereas the area of permanent lakes declined significantly, with the most pronounced shrinkage in middle- to high-altitude regions (1200 ≤DEM<1300 m and DEM≥1300 m). These regions accounted for a larger proportion of the total lake area in JZW, and their lake areas were more strongly correlated with annual temperature, land surface temperature, annual precipitation, and summer evaporation. Watershed analysis revealed seasonal lakes expanded across all watersheds, while permanent lakes in the Endorheic Region (ER) shrank continuously. Human activities were primary drivers of lake shrinkage in the ER, contributing 93.03 % to the reduction in permanent lakes, while seasonal lakes in the ER were more sensitive to climate change. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal variation patterns and driving forces of lakes in JZW, providing a scientific basis for understanding the mechanisms of seasonal lake changes and supporting lake function maintenance.