Construction of a correlation-regression model for researching the financial security of TOP-TEX LLC

The paper reveals scientific approaches to building a multifactorial regression model of the dependence of financial security on key factors of financial performance. Methods of multifactor correlation-regression analysis create a mathematical model of a process or phenomenon, which would allow assessing the degree of influence on the studied performance indicator of each of the factors introduced into the model with a fixed position at the average level of other factors. The construction of a multifactor regression model of the dependence of financial security on key factors of financial performance takes place in several stages. The first stage is the selection of all possible factors that affect the financial security of TOP-TEX LLC. The determination of the key impact of financial performance factors on financial security, expressed in changes in the net profit of TOP-TEX LLC, is based on the developed strategic performance map and indicator map. Here are the initial data for conducting regression analysis of the dependence of net profit on key performance factors. The next stage of building a multivariate regression model of the dependence of financial security on key factors of financial performance is the determination of the method. The method of multiple linear regression was used, where dependent and independent variables and components of linear regression are determined, the choice of which is based on correlation analysis. According to the results of linear pair regressions, financial security, expressed as changes in net profit, depends on the volumes of: net income from sales of products; cost of products sold; other operating expenses; average annual value of assets; cost of fixed assets of the company; equity capital of the enterprise; number of employees. As a result of the research, linear multiple and pair regression models were developed for the dependence of the net profit of LLC "TOP-TEX" on the factors influencing financial performance in order to promptly respond to internal financial changes to maintain financial security and an effective system for its management.