Projection of end-of-life electric vehicle batteries in India considering net-zero targets: a step towards circularity

Abstract India’s expanding road transport network has significantly improved connectivity but contributes 14% of energy-related emissions. Electrification is central to India’s net-zero target by 2070, but this transition will generate substantial electric vehicle (EV) battery waste. Currently, waste management infrastructure for recycling and recovering critical battery materials (e.g. lithium, cobalt, nickel, phosphorous) is growing at an optimum pace with the help of government policy support and overwhelming participation from the private sector. This study estimates EV battery waste until 2050 and evaluates the quantum of critical battery minerals (e.g. lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper and phosphorous) recovered by battery waste under three distinct scenarios: • Business-As-Usual . Continues current EV sales trends (2014–2023) to project future adoption. • Transformative Scenario . Targets 30% EV sales by 2030, with segment-wise penetration (e.g. two-wheeler (2W)/three-wheeler (3W): 35%, cars: 12–25%, buses/trucks: 30%). • Accelerated Scenario . Aligns with NITI Aayog’s (NITI Aayog is a policy think tank of the Government of India, providing directional and policy inputs) net-zero targets, aiming for 100% 2W/3W, 30%–70% in other segments by 2030. And two sub-scenario of battery-chemistry: a nickel–manganese–cobalt (NMC)–dominant case (98% NMC and 2% lithium iron phosphate (LFP)) and a LFP–dominant case (20% NMC and 80% LFP). The study projects the volume of end-of-life battery waste using a Weibull distribution, capturing variations in service life across vehicle segments. Covering six key segments—2W, 3W, private and commercial cars, buses, and trucks. The study estimates EV battery waste generation to reach 37–80 GWh annually by 2030, growing further sevenfold by 2040 and tenfold by 2050. Recovered materials from end-of-life batteries could supply 28%–43% of India’s critical battery material needs by 2030 to 2050, emphasising the need for robust recycling systems to support a sustainable, circular EV transition. This article recommends circular economy-based policies and practices that combine producer responsibility with time-bound collection and recycling targets, minimum recycled content requirements, battery passport traceability and clear rules for the movement and valuation of end-of-life batteries.