Multidimensional Urbanization and Housing Price Changes: Evidence from 35 Large- and Medium-Sized Cities in China

To address the issue of spatial mismatch of real estate resources at its source, we incorporate the multidimensional urbanization speeds into the real estate market stock-flow model, simulate the regional real estate resource allocation process from a dynamic perspective, and explore the impact of urbanization on housing prices, as well as the characteristics that a coordinated multidimensional urbanization should possess. Utilizing data on population flow, economic development, and the relative increment of newly built housing units that meet delivery standards from 2008 to 2022 in 35 large- and medium-sized cities in China. We employ the dynamic panel system GMM approach to estimate the direct effect of single-dimensional urbanization on housing prices, and utilize the threshold effect model to examine the comprehensive effect of multidimensional urbanization on housing prices. The findings reveal that population, economic, and spatial urbanization influence housing prices by altering the flow of real estate supply and demand, with their effects being significantly shaped by the scarcity of stock real estate resources. The dynamic coordination of multidimensional urbanization ρ has a significant threshold effect on housing price changes. When Vsu and Vpu reach the optimal match, the real estate market achieves dynamic equilibrium, and housing prices remain relatively stable. This not only underscores the significance of multidimensional urbanization as a driver of urban housing price variations but also provides valuable insights for cities on how to adjust the quantity of new residential construction (or land supply) during the dynamic urbanization process, thereby enhancing the spatial allocation rationality of real estate resources from the source.