UNLOCKING NIGERIA’S LOW-CARBON FUTURE: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY AND POLICY IMPERATIVES OF GAS FLARE MONETIZATION

Gas flaring remains one of Nigeria's most persistent environmental and economic challenges, resulting in both lost revenue opportunities and significant greenhouse gas emissions.This study applies a techno-economic feasibility framework to assess the viability of flare gas monetization across onshore and offshore oil blocks in the Niger Delta.The model integrates capture costs, transport infrastructure requirements, and gas market values into a decision-oriented tool for evaluating net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and breakeven thresholds under multiple scenarios.Results show that onshore monetization consistently delivers superior net benefits, with breakeven gas prices as low as US$2.1/MMBtu, compared to ~US$3.5/MMBtuoffshore, primarily due to lower pipeline infrastructure costs (US$1.3 vs. US$15.3per ton CO per 250 km).Onshore projects also remain financially viable across discount rates up to 15%, whereas offshore projects are far more sensitive to price shocks, requiring concessional finance, carbon pricing, or public-private partnerships to achieve bankability.The findings carry direct implications for Nigeria's energy transition.Prioritizing onshore flare monetization within the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) can unlock immediate economic and climate dividends, while offshore projects demand tailored financial instruments and international climate finance to support longer-term decarbonization.Overall, gas flare monetization offers Nigeria a dual opportunity: reducing emissions in line with its Energy Transition Plan and Paris commitments, while strengthening domestic energy security through expanded gas-to-power utilization.