Rain check: how data details influence payout determinations in a U.S. rainfall index insurance program

Abstract An increasing number of disaster relief programs rely on weather data to trigger automated payouts. However, several factors can meaningfully affect payouts, including the choice of data set, its spatial resolution, and the historical reference period used to determine abnormal conditions to be indemnified. We investigate these issues for a subsidized rainfall-based insurance program in the U.S. using data averaged over 0.25° × 0.25° grids to trigger payouts. We simulate the program using 5x finer spatial resolution precipitation estimates and evaluate differences in payouts from the current design. Our analysis across the highest enrolling state (Texas) from 2012 to 2023 reveals that payout determinations would differ in 13% of cases, with payout amounts ranging from 46 to 83% of those calculated using the original data. This potentially reduces payouts by tens of millions annually, assuming unchanged premiums. We then discuss likely factors contributing to payout differences, including intra-grid variation, reference periods used, and varying precipitation distributions. Finally, to address basis risk concerns, we propose ways to use these results to identify where mismatches may lurk, in turn informing strategic sampling campaigns or alternative designs that could enhance the value of insurance and protect producers from downside risks of poor weather conditions.