Predicting and Analyzing Urban Growth in a Developing Capital, Trends, Drivers, and Future Directions : Case of Antananarivo Agglomeration, Madagascar (1995~2045)

Purpose: Urbanization and city expansion in developing countries often lead to drastic spatial transformations, creating uneven growth patterns toward neighboring cities and climate-related challenges. Monitoring and predicting changes in land use within cities are essential to urban planners to understand growth dynamics and make decisions accordingly. This study aims to track urban expansion in Greater Antananarivo and examine growth pattern from 1995 to 2024, then predict the city’s potential growth pattern until 2045 using the MOLUSCE and finally examine possible urban sprawl inhibitors relevant to the case of Antananarivo based on previous research. Method: Land use changes were analyzed using satellite imagery and remote sensing data. MOLUSCE CA-ANN was applied to simulate future urban growth. UEII is used to assess buildup changes for each time interval while the Shannon Entropy model is used for showing sprawl changes. Result: The findings show that after rapid urbanization between 1995 and 2005, leading to saturation of the city center, sprawl started toward the neighboring municipalities the following years. Overall, Urban expansion in Greater Antananarivo has slowed for all studied years (1995~2024) and predicted trends (2025~2045) suggest that growth will continue to diminish in the center city, with peripheral expansion stabilizing after 2035. Entropy analysis shows past unplanned sprawl due to weak planning, while future projections suggest a slowdown, possibly from land saturation. Previous studies on urban growth of Antananarivo highlight fast population growth, internal migration from rural areas, and poor land management as key factors behind the city’s uncontrolled spatial expansion.