The Impact and Mechanism of the Natural Forest Logging Ban Policy on Rural Residents’ Income: A Case Study of China

The natural forest logging ban policy has substantially influenced rural residents’ production activities, daily lives, and income levels. Drawing on panel data from 30 provinces in China, this study examines both the overall effect of the policy on rural households’ income and the internal transmission mechanisms. The policy is regarded as an external shock, and its impact is identified through a multi-period difference-in-differences model combined with a mediation analysis. The results show three main findings: (1) the policy significantly raised rural households’ total income; the structural analysis indicates that its effects are notably positive on wage income and property income; in contrast, the impacts on operating income and transfer income are not statistically significant; (2) mechanism testing found that the policy significantly improved non-agricultural employment and increased ecological protection investment, indicating that the non-agricultural employment and ecological protection investment are important channels for the national natural forest logging ban policy to increase rural residents’ income; (3) heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effect is more pronounced in areas with a higher distribution of state-owned forest areas, along with the policy effects being more pronounced in non-carbon trading market pilot areas. Therefore, this article proposes policy recommendations for continuously improving the natural forest protection policy system, ensuring effective employment of rural labor, and building coordinated development of forestry systems between regions.