Divergent impacts of climate interventions on China’s north-south water divide

Abstract Solar radiation modification-based climate interventions may cause uneven regional hydrological changes while mitigating warming. Here, we investigate the effects of climate interventions on China’s North Drought-South Flood pattern using the Norwegian Earth System Model supplemented by volcanic data. Our results indicate that equatorial stratospheric aerosol injection could mitigate the north-south water divide by reducing inter-hemispheric and equator-to-North-pole temperature gradients, thereby modifying atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon to increase precipitation and surface runoff in northern China while reducing them in the south, compared to the high emissions scenario. This mechanism is supported by observed precipitation changes following the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. In contrast, marine cloud brightening may intensify southern flood risks, while cirrus cloud thinning and moderate emissions reduction might exacerbate northern droughts. Our findings reveal distinct regional hydroclimatic impacts of different climate interventions, highlighting potential synergies and trade-offs between their global intervention efficacy and regional water security.