Commercial gentrification and the uneven survival of local restaurants: a comparative study of Seoul’s neighborhoods

This study investigates the spatially differentiated impacts of commercial gentrification on small restaurant survival, focusing on the interaction between economic restructuring and urban development trajectories. Using data from Seoul’s historic central area and the rapidly modernized Gangnam area, we apply Kaplan – Meier estimation and a multilevel Cox proportional hazard model to assess how franchise expansion, land value escalation, and commercial development influence restaurant longevity. Results indicate that commercial gentrification’s impact is highly context dependent. Franchise expansion increases closure risk in the historic core but promotes survival in Gangnam. Employment growth within gentrifying industries reduces closure risk, particularly in areas undergoing intensive spatial and economic transformation. These findings emphasize the need for context-specific interpretations of gentrification. By integrating supply- and demand-side factors within a spatial framework, this study advances the understanding of urban commercial change and provides policy insights to address the uneven geographies of gentrification and small business displacement.