Techno-Economic Assessment of Marine Fuels for Container Ships: A Net Present Value-Based Investment Analysis

This study evaluates the financial viability of different main engine–fuel configurations for a container vessel on a standardized Trans-Pacific route. Using Net Present Value (NPV) analysis over a 10 year evaluation period (2024–2033), it compares six propulsion scenarios, combining three Wärtsilä engine types and four fuel alternatives (HFO, LFO, LNG, Methanol). The framework integrates technical parameters, including engine power and fuel consumption, with financial instruments such as the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Results show that the LNG-powered Wärtsilä 8V31DF achieves the highest NPV. Despite requiring the highest initial capital expenditure (CAPEX), this configuration delivers superior financial performance and remains robust under volatile market conditions. Sensitivity tests with ±20% freight–fuel shocks and alternative discount rates (5%, 7.18%, 10%) confirm that the relative ranking of propulsion options is stable. Methanol yields negative NPVs under current prices but could become competitive with bio-methanol cost reductions or strong carbon pricing. Limitations include constant non-fuel OPEX, fixed sea state, and the exclusion of explicit carbon price scenarios. From a policy perspective, LNG appears most viable in the short term, while long-term strategies should consider ammonia and hydrogen in line with IMO decarbonization pathways.