Explainable Multi-Frequency Long-Term Spectrum Prediction Based on GC-CNN-LSTM

The rapid development of wireless communication technology is leading to increasingly scarce spectrum resources, making efficient utilization a critical challenge. This paper proposes a Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory-Integrated Gradient-Weighted Class Activation Mapping (GC-CNN-LSTM) model, aimed at enhancing the accuracy of long-term spectrum prediction across multiple frequency bands and improving model interpretability. First, we achieve multi-frequency long-term spectrum prediction using a CNN-LSTM and compare its performance against models including LSTM, GRU, CNN, Transformer, and CNN-LSTM-Attention. Next, we use an improved Grad-CAM method to explain the model and obtain global heatmaps in the time–frequency domain. Finally, based on these interpretable results, we optimize the input data by selecting high-importance frequency points and removing low-importance time segments, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. The simulation results show that the Grad-CAM-based approach achieves good interpretability, reducing RMSE and MAPE by 6.22% and 4.25%, respectively, compared to CNN-LSTM, while a similar optimization using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) achieves reductions of 0.86% and 3.55%.