Exploring the Predictive Power of Subjective Norms on Population Census Participation Among Urban Residents in Lagos, Nigeria

This study investigates the behavioural intentions of residents in Lagos, Nigeria, towards participation in the national population census through the lens of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Specifically, it examines the influence of attitude, perceived behavioural control, and subjective norms on future census participation. The study employed a quantitative research design using survey data from 500 respondents across selected local government areas in Lagos State. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was used to test the hypothesised relationships. Three hypotheses were formulated. Hypothesis one (H01) tested whether attitude significantly influences behavioural intention; hypothesis two (H02) evaluated the effect of perceived behavioural control. The results revealed that all three constructs had statistically significant positive effects on residents’ intentions to participate in the census. Notably, hypothesis three demonstrated that subjective norms significantly influence behavioural intentions (β = 0.596, t = 5.782, p < 0.000), with an R² value of 0.356 and an effect size (F²) of 0.552, indicating a strong effect. These findings suggest that perceived social pressure from significant others—such as family, peers, and community leaders—plays a vital role in shaping intentions toward census participation. The model showed acceptable reliability and validity, with satisfactory model fit indices (SRMR = 0.069, NFI = 0.924). The study concludes that strengthening community advocacy and leveraging social influencers can enhance census participation in Lagos. These insights provide actionable guidance for policymakers and census officials seeking to boost public engagement and accurate data collection in future census exercises. Keywords: Census, Information sources, Population, Subjective Norm