Assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk in Southwest China using fuzzy logic-based geospatial techniques

Agricultural drought disasters greatly threaten sustainable social development. Quantitative assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk (ADDR) is essential for improving drought management. This study developed a comprehensive framework for assessing ADDR by selecting 16 indicators across four key dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk caused by insufficient mitigation capability (RIMC). Fuzzy logic-based geospatial techniques were then applied to assess ADDR in Southwest China during 2003–2020. Additionally, the relative contributions of key risk factors and the role of the irrigated farmland ratio in mitigating the ADDR were quantified. The results indicate that the Sichuan Basin, the central area where Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guizhou converge, along with northwestern Yunnan, exhibited the highest ADDR. The relative contributions of ADDR components varied spatially, with hazard and exposure dominating most regions. The threshold for the irrigated farmland ratio in mitigating ADDR was determined to be 7.18 %. Overall, the spatial information of ADDR and its components from this study provides crucial insights for mitigating ADDR. • Agricultural drought risk was assessed yearly (2003–2020) at 1 km resolution using 16 indicators. • ADDR estimates aligned with agricultural loss patterns, confirming the model’s robustness. • The extremely high-risk zone has shifted southward over time in southwest of China. • Despite Southwest China’s humid climate, extreme weather is a major driver of ADDR. • An irrigated farmland ratio of 7.18 % can help mitigate agricultural drought risk in the region.