Evaluating urban tree population fitness for a changing climate: Using climatic moisture index

• Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are essential tools for trees respond to climatic changes. • Climate Moisture Index (CMI) is useful variable for predicting trees for dry urban environments. • The study found a statistically significant relationship between CMI and leaf water potential. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are essential tools for understanding how species respond to climatic and environmental changes. In this study, we examine the relationship between Climatic Moisture Index (CMI) and leaf water potential (Ψ P0 ) across a variety of tree species to explore how climatic moisture conditions influence tree physiology, particularly in terms of drought tolerance. Using linear regression analysis, we found a statistically significant relationship between CMI and Ψ P0 , with the direction of the slope indicating how species respond to changes in moisture availability. Species with a positive relationship between CMI and Ψ P0 exhibited greater tolerance to fluctuating moisture conditions, while those with a negative relationship showed a higher susceptibility to drought stress. The findings underscore the importance of incorporating climatic factors into conservation and management strategies, particularly for species at risk of water stress under changing climate conditions. This research contributes to a broader understanding of tree physiology, with implications for conservation, restoration, and urban tree selection efforts in the face of global climate change.