Numeracy and pathological anxiety: the role of numerical and probabilistic reasoning in risk distortion

Distorted risk appraisal is a well-established contributor to anxiety maintenance/development. While specific cognitive risk factors like anxiety sensitivity (AS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) are well-studied, the role of numeracy, a construct linked to probabilistic reasoning ability, remains largely unexplored. Using a sample of undergraduate students (<i>n</i> = 74), bivariate correlations between numeracy, anxiety, IU, and AS were calculated. A stepwise regression was fitted to determine the effect of numeracy beyond previously established risk factors. The indirect effect of numeracy on anxiety via these risk factors was then assessed. Numeracy was solely correlated with IU. Stepwise regressions excluded numeracy as an immediate predictor of anxiety, retaining AS and IU in the final model. We further found a significant indirect effect of numeracy on anxiety through IU. This study is the first to examine numeracy's relationship with anxiety established clinical risk factors for anxiety. Numeracy's indirect relationship with anxiety through IU highlights its novel clinical significance as a relevant indicator of anxiety symptoms, and future research should seek to replicate this in further samples. These insights highlight a broad, novel risk/protective factor for the development of anxiety and point toward a new direction for treatments targeting cognitive distortions related to worry/anxiety.