NaTech database and methodologies for its risk assessment: a review

Abstract In recent years, the rising frequency and severity of NaTech incidents—industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as earthquakes, floods, and storms—has raised growing concern among researchers and risk management authorities. These complex events require the development of specific prevention and management strategies. This study proposes an analysis of 1,300 NaTech incidents over the past 70 years, aiming to identify trends, geographical distribution, and material damages. The analysis highlights the need for a systematic approach to data collection and organization, as fragmentation and lack of standardization across databases limit information sharing. The study also examines NaTech risk assessment methodologies, divided into quantitative and qualitative approaches for natural events such as earthquakes, floods, and storms. Reviewing these methodologies emphasizes the importance of an integrated approach to risk assessment, helping to improve preparedness and response to future NaTech incidents. To further illustrate the risks and complexities of NaTech events, the study presents an in-depth analysis of the fire at the TUPRAS refinery during the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake. This case study highlights the sequence of events, the severe environmental and economic consequences, and the lessons learned from the incident. By examining the structural weaknesses that contributed to the disaster and the subsequent measures taken to enhance safety, the analysis provides actionable insights for improving industrial resilience to natural hazards. The results underscore the importance of accurately identifying natural hazards, assessing their potential impact on industrial facilities, and developing effective mitigation strategies. Despite advancements in the field, greater efforts toward standardization and international collaboration are essential to improving global readiness and response to NaTech events, ultimately optimizing risk management and environmental safety.