Cumulative impacts to global marine ecosystems projected to more than double by mid-century

Pressures from human activities are expected to increase substantially, affecting marine ecosystems globally. To plan for a sustainable future, we need to forecast the distributions of cumulative effects from multiple pressures. Here, we mapped (at 10-kilometer resolution) the future cumulative impacts of 10 climate, land-based, fishing, and other pressures on 20 marine habitats under two climate scenarios at mid-century (around 2050). We found that cumulative impacts are projected to increase 2.2 to 2.6 times globally, with coastal habitats facing higher impacts but offshore regions facing faster increases, especially in equatorial regions. Furthermore, many countries dependent on marine resources will have large increases in impacts. Incorporating these results into strategic policy and management will support more sustainable use and protection of marine ecosystems and the services they provide.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science
Published
2025-09-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adv2906
Citations
16
Primary Topic
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
27.46
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article

Cumulative impacts to global marine ecosystems projected to more than double by mid-century

Melanie Frazier, Benjamin S. Halpern, O. Alejandra Vargas‐Fonseca, Amanda T. Lombard et al.
16 citations
Science
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
27.46
article

Cumulative impacts to global marine ecosystems projected to more than double by mid-century

Melanie Frazier, Benjamin S. Halpern, O. Alejandra Vargas‐Fonseca, Amanda T. Lombard, Casey C. O’Hara
article en
16 citations

Abstract

Pressures from human activities are expected to increase substantially, affecting marine ecosystems globally. To plan for a sustainable future, we need to forecast the distributions of cumulative effects from multiple pressures. Here, we mapped (at 10-kilometer resolution) the future cumulative impacts of 10 climate, land-based, fishing, and other pressures on 20 marine habitats under two climate scenarios at mid-century (around 2050). We found that cumulative impacts are projected to increase 2.2 to 2.6 times globally, with coastal habitats facing higher impacts but offshore regions facing faster increases, especially in equatorial regions. Furthermore, many countries dependent on marine resources will have large increases in impacts. Incorporating these results into strategic policy and management will support more sustainable use and protection of marine ecosystems and the services they provide.

ScienceVol. 389(6766)
University of California, Santa Barbara (US), National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (US), Nelson Mandela University (ZA)
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
27.46
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