Reconciling the right to develop with leaving fossil fuels underground in the Global South

To address climate change, supply-side action and policy are urgently needed for leaving fossil fuels underground. Low- and Middle-Income Countries hold a pivotal role in such a transition due to their significant fossil fuel reserves and their Right to Development. Against this background, this paper asks: What rationales, based on fossil fuel data and the Right to Development, could underpin Global South countries' engagement in or withdrawal from fossil fuel supply? To unpack their development dilemmas and unravel a set of different arguments for different countries, this paper first develops an inventory of Low- and Middle-Income Countries, drawing from data on reserves, production, and infrastructure, to quantitatively assess their material involvement in fossil fuels and to identify potential cases for impactful and just mitigation action. We also estimate potential carbon emissions from burning all reserves in the included Least Developed Countries. These hypothetical per capita emissions are 10.94 % of those emitted by the richest 0.1 % in 2019. Based on this assessment, we then propose a typology of different Right to Development rationales around fossil fuels. We call for more granular analyses of the Global South in supply-side climate policy, to allow for their autonomous development trajectories. This includes a managed and just phase-out of fossil fuels aligned with the 1.5 ºC target, ensuring that the burden of stranded assets and resources falls on those most capable of bearing it. • We develop an inventory of LMICs and LDCs based on fossil fuel data. • This reveals varying short- and long-term interests in fossil fuels among LMICs. • We estimate potential carbon emissions from LDCs' fossil fuel reserves at 8.31 GtCO 2 . • We propose a typology of different Right to Development rationales around fossil fuels. • Our findings highlight the need for a managed and just global transition away from fossil fuels.