Methodology for Calculating DG Penetration Using Time Series Analysis

This paper presents a methodology for estimating the penetration level of photovoltaic generation in distribution networks, using public data from the Geographic Database of Distributors (BDGD) and time series of solar irradiation from PVGIS. The methodology was applied to the distribution network in the state of São Paulo, which consists of 650 substations and 645 municipalities. The growth of Distributed Generation (DG), particularly solar energy, requires new practices for managing the bidirectional flow of energy. This study develops a approach based on time series to calculate photovoltaic gross generation, considering average irradiation and installed capacity. Additionally, the solar penetration index in substations is calculated by comparing the energy generated with the energy consumed, as well as the installed capacity with peak load. The results contribute to the efficient integration of renewable sources into the São Paulo electrical system.