Risk Optimization With a New BOBTA Approach (Barrier and Operational Bow Tie Analysis) Combining the Bow Tie Method and Risk Influence Factors

ABSTRACT The traditional bow tie (BT) methodology, although widely adopted in risk analysis, inherits limitations from its foundational methods, fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA). These techniques often fail to adequately capture the complexity of modern industrial systems, particularly in the presence of uncertain data sources and when the technical, human, and organizational dimensions are not coherently integrated into the assessment of barrier failure probabilities and human errors. To address these limitations, we propose an enhanced framework, barrier and operational bow tie analysis (BOBTA), which integrates the concept of risk influencing factors (RIFs), originally developed within the BORA (barrier and operational risk analysis) approach, into the classical BT structure. BOBTA enables the dynamic refinement of generic data, such as that provided by the OREDA database, by incorporating real‐time, system‐specific operational conditions. This integration yields more accurate and context‐sensitive risk estimation, enhancing the evaluation of barrier performance and system resilience across diverse operational scenarios. Moreover, BOBTA facilitates informed decision‐making by identifying key improvement actions that improve safety management strategies without requiring additional safety barriers. The effectiveness and relevance of the methodology are illustrated through a case study involving a potential catastrophic rupture of a hydrocarbon storage tank, thus highlighting its practical value and potential to significantly strengthen risk management in complex industrial environments.