Dynamics of Water Quality and Microbial Communities in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project: Characterization and Driving Mechanisms

Microbial communities, as critical functional components of riverine ecosystems, play a pivotal role in biogeochemical cycles and water quality regulation. The South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project (SNWD-MRP) is a major cross-basin water transfer initiative, and bacteria are essential for the stability of water quality in the project. This study employed environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding targeting the 16S rRNA gene to investigate spatiotemporal variations in water quality and bacterial communities along the SNWD-MRP during summer and winter. Integrated analyses, including redundancy analysis (RDA), Mantel tests, and ecological network modeling, were applied to unravel the driving mechanisms of microbial succession. The water quality along the SNWD-MRP is generally classified as Grade I, with significant seasonal variations in water quality parameters and microbial community composition. In the summer, higher temperatures lead to an increased abundance of cyanobacteria. In contrast, during the winter, lower water temperatures and higher dissolved oxygen levels result in the dominance of <i>Pseudomonas</i> and <i>Bacillota</i> species. RDA identified the permanganate index as the primary driver of microbial composition across seasons, with total phosphorus and total nitrogen having a greater influence in winter. Mantel tests highlighted significant correlations between Cyanobacteria and total phosphorus during winter. Ecological network analysis revealed that the complexity and connectivity of the winter network increased, likely due to suitable nutrient levels rendering the microbial network more complex and stable. These findings underscore the synergistic effects of temperature and nutrient availability on microbial succession, providing actionable insights for optimizing water quality management and ecological stability in large-scale water diversion systems.