Mapping the Missed Days: Latent Patterns of Attendance and Their Predictors in English Secondary Schools

Absence from school has wide-ranging and enduring negative consequences for individuals and society. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been a pervasive concern and key educational research priority in many countries around the world. Using data from the #BeeWell survey and linked administrative records for N=28,293 pupils aged 12-16 attending 71 secondary schools in Hampshire and Southampton (England) during the 2023/24 academic year, we conducted Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) to identify distinct longitudinal patterns of attendance and estimate key predictors of latent class membership. Analysis revealed four distinct patterns of attendance: Consistently High (91.8%); Declining (3.8%); Rising (2.3%); and Persistently Low (2.1%). Consistent with bioecological systems theory, we found that socioeconomic deprivation, poorer mental and physical health, weaker school belonging, and increased exposure to peer and academic pressures significantly increased the likelihood of following sub-optimal attendance trajectories (relative to the Consistently High attendance class). Likewise, those with Special Educational Needs (SEN; compared to those without SEN) and White British pupils (compared to their peers from minoritised ethnic groups) were more likely to follow sub-optimal trajectories. Findings reveal heterogeneity in post-pandemic attendance patterns with implications for multi-tiered interventions. Universal approaches should foster a strong sense of school belonging, while early warning systems should integrate psychosocial indicators such as school pressure, internalising symptoms and exposure to bullying. Identification of a Rising trajectory suggests potential for positive change through targeted support and underscores the importance of implementing effective educational psychology interventions to reverse long-lasting impact of COVID-19 on secondary school attendance.