Environmental leapfrogging: Paths and strategies to decarbonise transport in Ethiopia

• Conventional transport strategies are not sufficient to avoid carbon lock-in system in developing countries. Leapfrogging is therefore a necessity. • Leapfrogging in the transport sector should embrace all low-carbon transport alternatives that are suitable for local contexts. • Non-motorised transport, public transit and innovative transport integration are potential leapfrog scenarios for developing countries. • Creating a decarbonised transport system in developing countries requires setting a clear path and creating an enabling environment. Carbon dioxide emissions from passenger transportation are increasing worldwide and especially in developing countries (DCs). Maintaining a conventional approach to transportation, which is resource-intensive and environmentally damaging, and pursuing incremental emission reductions is no longer sufficient to achieve sustainable transport in DCs. Thus, in developing countries, incremental transport decarbonisation strategies, often based on regulation of the automotive sector, cannot address the complexity of transport emissions and meet the ever-growing demand for mobility. Transport systems in developing countries are not yet tied to a carbon-intensive and car-centric system, but the trend is increasingly moving in this direction. This offers the possibility of “environmental leapfrogging”, a path or process adopted by latecomers to surpass the carbon-intensive and car-centric paths pursued by others. Leapfrogging in the transport sector, defined in this paper as any low-carbon and locally relevant mode of transportation adopted by latecomers, is thus an alternative pathway for developing countries. Using Ethiopia as a case study and data obtained through document analysis, interviews and observation, this paper discusses the prospects of developing countries towards a sustainable low-carbon transportation system. The adoption of active and public transportation and the integration of transport networks are fundamental components of this system. Electric vehicles, commonly associated with leapfrogging, offer further potential in the medium to long term. However, several political, economic and institutional obstacles need to be overcome. This would require the development of clear strategies and instruments, the strengthening of the institutional framework and expanding levellers (such as knowledge and innovation centers and local enterprsies).