Driving sustainable hydroelectric investments: Leveraging two-step logarithmic normalization for sustainable investment prioritization

Hydroelectric energy investments involve substantial techno-economic risks that can increase costs and undermine economic sustainability if not properly managed. However, the literature lacks comprehensive studies addressing these risks. This study proposes a novel decision-making model to identify and prioritize strategies for effective risk management in hydroelectric projects. The model integrates z-scoring for expert selection, the Criteria Importance Assessment (CIMAS) method for weighting criteria, and the Alternative Ranking using Two-Step Logarithmic Normalization (ARLON) method for ranking EU-15 countries according to their strategies. Pythagorean fuzzy numbers are incorporated to better handle uncertainty and improve evaluation accuracy. Results indicate that challenges in adopting new technologies and grid integration issues are the most influential risk factors. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers and investors to enhance the sustainability and efficiency of hydroelectric energy investments. Policymakers should implement targeted incentives and regulatory frameworks to accelerate technology adoption and address grid integration challenges in hydroelectric projects. Strategic planning should prioritize infrastructure modernization, cross-border energy cooperation, and capacity-building programs to enhance sector resilience and investment security.