Employment Mismatches and Occupational Shortage in Uttar Pradesh: An Analysis Using EUS and PLFS Unit-Level Data

The phenomenon of occupational shortages in India presents a complex and multifaceted challenge that intersects various industrial sectors and economic domains. Despite India's impressive economic growth trajectory and the demographic dividend afforded by its substantial youth population, the nation grapples with significant challenges in skilled labour availability, creating critical gaps across occupational sectors. This research endeavours to examine occupational shortages in Uttar Pradesh through a comprehensive analysis of unit-level data derived from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and Employment & Unemployment Survey (EUS). The study's primary objectives encompass an examination of employment shortages across various occupational categories in Uttar Pradesh and a comparative analysis of occupational shortages using the Occupational Shortage Index (OSI) between 2011-12 and 2022-23. The findings reveal a notable pattern of excessive employment in India, which demonstrated an upward trend until the fourth quarter of 2022. Subsequently, this trajectory underwent a significant shift, moving towards positive occupational shortage. Regional analysis of occupational shortages indicates that the central region exhibits the most pronounced shortage due to significant occupational deficits in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Focusing specifically on Uttar Pradesh, the research identifies a persistent and increasing occupational shortage throughout the study period. Notably, occupations requiring medium to high skill levels, such as professionals in the field of science, administration and legal demonstrate significant shortages. Conversely, occupations with lower skill requirements, including forestry and hunting workers, cleaners, and related workers, exhibit surplus labour conditions in U.P. The comparative analysis between 2011-12 and 2022-23 reveals structural transformation in Uttar Pradesh's labour market as occupations demanding medium to high skills and job across professional categories are facing more shortages. This research contributes to the understanding of labour market dynamics in Uttar Pradesh and provides valuable insights for policymakers addressing workforce development and economic planning. The findings underscore the need for targeted interventions through providing vocational trainings to address skill mismatches and occupational shortages in specific sectors while managing surplus labour in others.