Analyzing soil erosion trends and future predictions using the RUSLE model: A case study of the Dwarakeswar River Basin, West Bengal

Climate change and non-sustainable land use management are closely linked to soil erosion (SE), which poses the most significant threat worldwide. This paper aims to assess annual SE in Dwarakeswar River Basin (DRB) in terms of current and future climatic and land-use change in 2035 and 2050. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model was applied to obtain SE. Furthermore, land use has been simulated using an ANN and Markov chain model. Precipitation was projected using the General Circulation Model (GCM) of MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Climate Research) from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. Finally, this study examines the variations between forecasted and current erosion rates to identify the patterns of soil erosion change and the SE pockets. The average rainfall rate in future is expected to be lower than in the current period. Results revealed that the mean average estimated annual SE rate in the study area in 2022 approximately 7.74 t ha −1 yr −1 . In contrast to RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios in 2035 the mean SE 23.56 t ha −1 yr −1 , 22.95 t ha −1 yr −1 , and 22.84 t ha −1 yr −1 , and in 2050 the mean SE 25.16 t ha −1 yr −1 , 24.76 t ha −1 yr −1 , and 25.51 t ha −1 yr −1 respectively, which represents a 3 to 4 times SE increase in the future. To mitigate this damage, a better management plan should be adopted, which could possibly address this issue, especially in those SE pockets.