The Impact of New Quality Productive Forces on Green Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

New quality productive forces, characterized by the enhancement of total factor productivity, reflect the standards of contemporary advanced productive forces and embody the core demands of the new development paradigm and high-quality growth. Based on this, the paper selects panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2010 and 2019 and utilizes the green total factor productivity index, which accounts for undesirable outputs, to explore the impact and mechanisms of new quality productive forces on green total factor productivity. The results indicate that new quality productive forces significantly enhance green total factor productivity, and this conclusion is further confirmed through a series of robustness checks. Further research finds that the upgrading of industrial structure plays a mediating role in the process, while the agglomeration of high-tech industries and specialized agglomeration of productive service industries act as moderating variables that enhance the positive impact of new quality productive forces on green total factor productivity. Moreover, the impact of new quality productive forces on green total factor productivity exhibits significant regional heterogeneity. Based on these findings, the paper proposes several policy recommendations aimed at fostering the development of new quality productive forces and improving green total factor productivity.