Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in the Bilate Subbasin, Southern Ethiopia: Analyzing Key Processes and Driving Factors

The Bilate subbasin in Ethiopia’s Rift Valley faces severe ecological degradation due to rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes, requiring urgent research for sustainable management. Existing studies predominantly focus on net LULC changes, overlooking deeper transformation trends and their ecological implications. This study aimed to assess and quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC, accounting for underlying processes, environmental implications, and future trends. Satellite imagery (1991–2021) was processed using ArcGIS 10.4, leveraging its advanced image processing capabilities. Supervised classification method using Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC), due to its proven accuracy in pixel‐based categorization of heterogeneous landscapes, was used to classify LULC classes. Field observations, focus group discussions (FGDs), and key informants interview (KII) supplemented the analysis. Future LULC patterns were predicted using the ANN‐CA algorithm within the modules for land use change evaluation (MOLUSCE) plugin of QGIS. The study identified six LULC classes: agricultural land (75.9%–91.6%), vegetation (10.2–2.7%), built‐up areas (0.1–0.5%), grazing land (11.8–2.0%), barren land (1.4–2.9%), and water bodies (0.5–0.3%). The findings revealed significant LULC transitions, with agricultural land expanding at 2836.8 ha/year, while vegetation and grazing lands declined by 1363.3 and 1779.1 ha/year, respectively. The most intense transformation occurred between 2001 and 2011, with 137,895 ha total conversion. During this period, vegetation and grazing lands diminished by 37,695.9 and 33,855.6 ha, respectively, whereas agricultural land expanded by 62,173.8 ha. LULC changes were driven by a combination of proximate factors (farmland expansion, deforestation, and settlement growth) and the underlying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers (population pressure and drought). While systematic transformation processes dominated earlier periods, recent years exhibited more random LULC changes. Ecologically, these shifts have led to biodiversity loss, increased surface runoff, and reduced soil moisture. Future projection indicated continued agricultural expansion, further fragmenting natural vegetation and grazing lands. Immediate policy interventions are recommended to promote SLM, including agricultural intensification and reforestation. This study underscores the need for integrated land‐use planning to balance ecological health and socioeconomic development in Bilate subbasin.