Forecasting Models Based on Total Population for Primary Energy Consumption of the N – 11 Countries

This study aims to establish forecasting models for primary energy consumption (PEC) of next eleven (N–11) countries based on total population (TP) using trend analysis (TA). In this regards, the data of TP and PEC spanning from 1985 to 2023 were utilized for the N – 11 countries to establish forecasting models. The established models were then validated by several statistical indicators. In addition, forecasting accuracies of the established models were measured by various error indices such as mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), uncertainty at 95% (U95), maximum absolute relative error (erMAX) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Moreover, the PECs of case countries were forecasted for period of ten years starting at 2025 by the established models. It is determined that the established models are able to successfully forecast the PECs of N – 11 countries. Furthermore, the forecasting results show evidently that significant increases are expected for the related countries in near future when taking into account the current studies’ conditions.