A Forecasting Modeling of Imported Goods Release Waiting Time in Importer Logistics Operations Using Multiple Linear Regression

Import activities play a critical role in international trade, directly affecting logistics efficiency and the competitiveness of importing companies. The process of releasing imported goods at ports often involves complex administrative procedures that can cause delays, leading to increased logistics costs. This study aims to predict the waiting time for the release of imported goods using a machine learning approach. A case study was conducted at PT. Sentra Sarana Logistic, a licensed customs broker responsible for import administration. The primary model applied was Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and its performance was compared with Neural Network (NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. Several influencing factors were considered, including tax payment time, inspection duration, and inspection status. Evaluation results indicate that the MLR model achieved the best performance, with an RMSE of 0.00653, MAE of 0.00544, and R-squared of 0.99999, demonstrating high prediction accuracy and a strong linear correlation. The SVM model yielded acceptable results (RMSE 0.74107, R-squared 0.98388) but underperformed compared to MLR. The NN model showed the lowest accuracy with RMSE 2.86599, MAE 2.38831, and R-squared 0.69510. The findings suggest that MLR, despite its simplicity, is highly effective for predicting waiting times in import logistics operations. This research not only offers a practical decision-support tool for importers but also contributes to the existing literature on machine learning applications in logistics operations and customs processing.