On the Utility of Using a Policy Delphi for Estimating the Impacts of Marijuana Legalization on Violence and Crime

Although several countries stand on the precipice of legally regulating recreational cannabis, what impacts cannabis reform will have on organized crime, drug-related violence and illicit drug markets remains virtually unknown. Publics and politicians are divided on whether cannabis regulation will increase or decrease drug profits, crime and violence. To overcome this impasse, the article proposes utilizing a Policy Delphi, which facilitates collective idea generation through an anonymous, multistage processes, helps to unearth areas of agreements and disagreement and clarifies underlying ideas and rationales among participants. With a Policy Delphi approach, experts refine their initial estimates of the likely effects of the legal regulation of cannabis through iterative rounds of further questioning and feedback based on the answers of other participants. Given the inherent uncertainty and unknown quantities involved, a Policy Delphi approach can be useful to narrow down the likely impacts of marijuana legalization, identify underlying assumption and assess rationales and highlight both agreements and disagreements among experts. Using a Policy Delphi can contribute to clarify what to expect of the legal regulation of cannabis regarding drug-related violence and crime.